The New Europe

Sabre Rattling or Selling Sabres?

Lecture notes on “Russian Foreign Policy” in Lucas, The New Cold War, 2014 Edition.

Note this story on Russian Navy in Sebastopol, 2008

Links up well with Cottey theme, The Paradox of Russian Power

Is Russia strong or weak militarily? How do we know? Spend some time talking this over at your table, researching Russia’s military might

Look for data comparing military capacities of US (and NATO) and Russian Federation

Specifically, annual military spending in real terms and as % of GDP

Size of forces (conventional and nuclear)

GlobalFirePower.com

US and Russia Compared

Nation Master

Lucas describes several very advanced weapons systems developed by RU in recent years, e.g., Shkval torpedo, Moskit supersonic missile, S-400 air defense system (twice the range of US Patriot missiles), Topol-M (ICBM fueled by solid fuel that can be launched from anywhere)

Investing in $190 bln through 2015 (not clear since when) in modernizing its arsenal; replacing 45% of weaponry (Lucas, 245)

Source: Originally Der Spiegel but be sure to visit where I found it on Dr. Dmitri Gorenburg’s Blog RussiaMil

https://russiamil.wordpress.com/2014/03/31/how-not-to-do-maps-of-military-strength/

Cited by Lucas:

Center for Defense Information (for US – part of POGO)

Are we (and the Russians) victims of the Cold War mentality obsessed with competition and brinksmanship? Is this useful for negotiating the world today? Developing our foreign policy? Acting in the world?

What is Lucas’s bottom line on Russian military might?

Selling Arms

Look for current info on arms sale by country

US, Russia, France, Germany

Russian export firm, created by Putin in 2000: Rosoboronexport

Russia is world’s second largest arms seller, after US

Biggest buyers: China, India, African countries

Russia’s Most Effective Weapons in the New Cold War?

Information, Misinformation, Propaganda (sabre rattling)

e.g., hinting that it might be helping Iran develop nuclear weapons

“buzzing” UK, Baltic countries

deliberately raising periscope off coast of Sweden

play NATO, European countries and US off of each other, create division

e.g., the plan to put missile defense systems in PL and CZ (now abandoned)

European public opinion against US since Iraq War, Bush presidency

Obama hasn’t acted in ways that restore faith

NSA spy scandal, phone hacking

Revealed that Romania, Poland (and Lithuania) participated in extraordinary rendition

Lucas writes, The Kremlin couldn’t have written a better story line (254)

European Court of Human Rights (Council of Europe body) found PL guilty of this in

Al Nishiri v. Poland (24 July 2014)

Conventional Forces in Europe Treaty

Negotiated, signed in 1990

Lucas argues its really symbolic

Putin can act insulted by refusal of some countries to ratify (in response to Georgia situation)

Portrays it as sign of Western aggression on Russia’s borders

An invitation to withdraw from it altogether

Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty

Putin said in 2007 that it no longer serves Russian interests (256)

Ideology driving Russia’s Foreign Policy? [go to Valdai notes here]

“Russia’s business is business (Dmitri Trenin) (258)

Lucas asserts (258) that Putin has dropped 3 cornerstones of Soviet foreign policy:

-a messianic ideology

-raw military power

-the imperative of territorial expansion

in favor of creating an ideology of wealth for the politically connected (and political power for the economically connected)

Do you agree?

Cooperation in Central Asia

Putin’s concession to allow US to use airbase in Kazakhstan to demonstrate our common cause in

Defeating Islamic extremism, terrorism

Back-fired? Dividends didn’t pay off, Lucas implies (259)

And it seems the sands are shifting in Central Asia

Russian-Kazakh Relations are again strengthening

NATO Expansion

US treat Russia as a pariah

Russia responds by acting like one?

We insist on democracy promotion, Russia consolidates power along other lines?

Moves closer to Brazil, India, China, Venezuela (Putin himself, in Valdai speech, mentions the BRICs as an important counter balance to US unilateralism)

Notes there were no anti-Chavez rallies in European capitals, but there were anti-Bush ones (261)

Why?

Russia’s Foreign Policy “Wish List” In Europe (261-62)

Deference to Russia in “former Soviet Empire”? (where does this end?) better to say FSU?

The energy “Finlandization” of Europe – what does this mean?

International parity of esteem (i.e. R-E-S-P-E-C-T), i.e., seat at table at big meetings (G-8 – note G-7 meeting last year due to UKR situation) “the quartet” negotiations in Isr/Palestine

Russia’s Clout in the Muslim World

What is Russia’s relationship with “Muslim world”? [what Muslim world??]

Putin declared Russia Islam’s “historic defender” at meeting in 2003 meeting in Malaysia [is there any factual basis for this? What is it? Is this revisionism?]

Russia joined the Islamic Conference Organization as an observer in 2005

What is Russia’s agenda in cozying up to (some) Muslim countries

Note: Syria situation, UN votes

See bottom of page 263

Historically Anti-Semitic (hence, pro-Palestinian)

[Lucas argues that the Russian pendulum has swung towards Israel because of large Russian speaking minority there; this is patently false. These are Russian speaking Jews, not a group that Putin has any political affinity towards. There is no evidence of growing support of Israel on Putin’s part. To the contrary, Putin has fostered close ties with new counter-revolutionary government in Egypt and has been one of Syrian regime’s staunchest supporters. It is widely believed that Russia supports Hamas and Hezbollah. These, plus Iran, are the horses Putin is backing in MENA].

WWW: World without the West!

New axes of power

Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO)

Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO)

Maybe we really are moving in to a New Cold War!